A $3.3 trillion “Big Beautiful Bill,” signed into law on July 4th, 2025. Sounds patriotic, right? Tax cuts! More money in your pocket! Before you run out to put more money into Dogecoin, pump the brakes. We need to consider the real risk of unintended consequences. Well, history has taught me that nothing is ever that cut and dry. My somewhat cynical bean counter decidedly approves—especially when we’re talking about government dollars.

More Money, More Crypto Problems?

The headline screams: Crypto investments to surge 20%! Add to this that the tax cuts put a lot of new disposable income into Americans’ pockets. Consequently, some of that newfound liquidity is pouring straight into the crypto markets. Bitcoin, Solana, perhaps even a meme coin or three. But really, don’t get fooled – all of a sudden is everyone an expert crypto day trader? Are we creating a generation of bag holders? Or they could be in for an expensive wakeup call the next time the market corrects. It’s akin to handing an irresponsible three-year-old a flamethrower and anticipating that he will prepare a five-course feast. Of course he might just miraculously flip that steak and give it the perfect sear, but odds are the home’s going up in flames.

This bill happens to be the worst thing ever for increasing the national debt. Elon Musk, never one to hold back, is predicting a coming recession. He’s even menacing to launch his own third party dedicated to fiscal hawkery. Yet Musk’s involvement and a hint of phenomenon like this is enough to change market sentiment. As you know, anyone is going to place a larger wager on the favorite if they see Elon Musk in the saddle. Which brings us to my next point.

Dollar Decline, Bitcoin Savior?

The argument goes: a weaker dollar makes Bitcoin more attractive as a store of value. Fine, maybe. But a collapsing dollar is just a symptom of a much larger economic disease. Under those conditions, a runny nose would seem like a gift. It provides you the undisputed best reason to skip work and marathon some Netflix! You're missing the point! A weakened dollar means more inflation, less bang for their buck, and all around economic insecurity. That’s bad for all of us, including crypto investors.

I’ll be honest – Bitcoin, and most cryptos, are still mostly speculative assets. They're not insulated from broader economic trends. If we are right that the whole financial system is teetering on the brink, a digital “store of value” won’t save you. It can’t magically remove all the crisis. That’s the equivalent of believing that a high-tech life raft will rescue you when the Titanic is going down. It can save you a few minutes, but you’re still floating in the arctic ocean.

Consider this: If the US dollar really tanks, will governments simply stand by and watch people flock to decentralized alternatives? Will they regulate this stuff to the point that it’s basically impossible to even think about crypto? Or will you get a visit from the SEC for merely considering it? The SEC is already taking its time approving the second largest altcoin Grayscale’s ETF. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement. The SEC is being the overprotective parent that prevents their children from ever even playing out on the playground.

Regulation: Friend or Foe

The crypto world loves to hate regulation. Let’s not get carried away, a degree of regulation is needed to deter consumer fraud and other dishonest practices. The catch is, the regulatory environment remains very confusing. Then one day, the REX-Osprey™ SOL + Staking ETF gets approved. Yet it gives you a way to get direct exposure to Solana while earning incredibly lucrative staking rewards. The very same day, the SEC is pushing back the approval of Grayscale’s altcoin basket ETF. It’s almost like trying to run a maze with a blindfold on.

Robinhood is preparing to tokenize over 200 stocks and ETFs. Besides that, they’re building a Layer-2 blockchain and getting ready to launch crypto staking services in the US. DeFi Development is even purchasing Solana tokens with its own treasury, casting aside the old Bitcoin-focused development playbook. To be clear, all these things sound amazing, and they absolutely can be the future. A darker side to this mainstream adoption is that it may make them targets for increased regulatory scrutiny.

Here's the unexpected connection: think about the dot-com boom of the late 90s. Everyone was just dumping cash into online companies with no viable business model or path to profitability. The bubble did end up bursting, and many thousands of investors lost tens of thousands of dollars each. At its best, crypto has the potential to democratize finance. If we’re not careful, it will become just that — another dot-com-style disaster waiting to happen.

So, enjoy your tax cut. Maybe buy a little Bitcoin. But don't bet the farm. And for heaven’s sake, research deeply before making any investments in meme coins. Remember, as my accountant is fond of saying, "If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is." And that goes for both appropriations bills and speculative crypto investments. There’s no need to be a curmudgeon, of course, but a little healthy skepticism never hurt.