Let’s face it, most of the climate-themed headlines you see on BTC and “green” Bitcoin mining are more aspirational than they are factual. Adecoagro, one of South America’s largest agribusiness operators, teaming up with Tether, the stablecoin juggernaut, to mine Bitcoin with excess renewable energy? It is the stuff of ESG fairy tales. Before we uncork the bottle and rejoice crypto as the world’s savior, hold the phone. It’s also time to inject a little realism into the debate.

Green Crypto: Is it Really Green?

The core argument is seductive: Adecoagro has excess renewable energy – hydro, solar, wind – roughly 230 MW of it. Rather than allowing it to be wasted, she wondered, couldn’t the energy be harnessed to mine Bitcoin? Sounds logical, right? Maybe. Let’s not conflate “less bad” with “good.” Just because they’re tapping into surplus energy doesn’t mean it’s environmentally neutral by default.

Far from being a “waste” producing a “surplus,” that energy could be put to productive use. Powering local communities, supporting emerging new industries, or even offsetting continuing dependence on fossil fuels in much of the rest of the region. Yet by dedicating it to Bitcoin mining, aren’t we leaving aside uses for that energy with higher value and greater benefit to society? This is the opportunity cost that nobody is willing to discuss.

What about when that surplus goes away entirely? What’s it going to be like during a drought, or a less windy year? Or will Adecoagro be lured into supplementing with dirtier inputs to maintain the Bitcoin bonanza? Those are the questions we should really be asking.

Bitcoin's Volatility: A Risky "Hedge"?

Adecoagro sees Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and macroeconomic uncertainty, a way to diversify beyond the whims of crop yields and commodity prices. That’s quite an understatement, to put it mildly. Bitcoin, while showing promise, is notoriously volatile. As we have seen, one tweet from an influencer, a change in regulation, or a black swan event can send its price crashing.

How can a company seriously depend on such a volatile asset to protract energy sales revenue or offer lasting economic viability?

I'm skeptical. It’s hard to expect traditional farmland to offer that kind of blow-out return. Yet it provides a form of stability and predictability that Bitcoin just is not able to deliver. Swapping a tangible asset for a digital one, especially one as speculative as Bitcoin, feels more like gambling than hedging.

Remember the dot-com boom? From companies throwing .com on the end of their name just to pump up their stock price. Is this latest foray into crypto any different? A dangerous ploy to seem cutting-edge and lure investors under the guise of self-created riskiness?

Tether's Ambitions: A House Built on Sand?

Tether’s broader ambition is to be the world’s largest Bitcoin miner by the end of 2025. Ambitious, to say the least. As part of this commitment, it plans to open-source its mining OS. As much as I welcome any step in the direction of transparency, we really need to consider the broader context here.

As the original stablecoin issuer, Tether has already been at the center of plenty of controversy and speculation over the composition of its reserves and how it operates. This partnership with Adecoagro also seems good PR tactic. It seems more meant to greenwash the company’s image and distract from past controversies.

What about the financial inclusion aspect? Tether’s MoU with Zanzibar’s eGovernment Authority is framed as an effort to close gaps in financial inclusion. Cryptocurrency is not a magic bullet for poverty or inequality. It needs education, infrastructure and a predictable regulatory environment. Just blindly throwing Bitcoin at the precipice isn’t going to do much.

Everything about this project sounds like a big bet. It’s a speculative play on the future of cryptocurrency that might pay off big, but risks exposing both Adecoagro and Tether to massive losses.

I see a lot of hype and potential with this Bitcoin farm. I’m hard pressed to find any hard evidence that it’s anything but a greenwashed PR stunt — a fatal miscalculation that could have disastrous ramifications.

We shouldn’t be dazzled by the promise of “green” crypto. We can do better by demanding transparency, accountability, and a candid risk-benefit analysis. Our fiscal future – not to mention the health of our planet – may depend on it.